Interview with The Godfather of Securities Kan Zhidong: It is difficult to judge that a new round of bull market has started

Interview with “The Godfather of Securities” Kan Zhidong: It is difficult to judge that a new round of bull market has started
“Whether it is a new bull market has started, from my personal point of view, it is difficult for me to judge.”Referencing the severely volatile stock market and bull market voices recently,” Securities Godfather Kan Zhidong said in an exclusive interview with Sauna Nightnet that A shares have been hovering at 3,000, and the entire stock market is relatively sluggish.We should remind everyone to remember that investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.Kan Zhidong is a leader in the domestic securities industry, founded Shenyin Securities, a deep venture capital group, created many “firsts” in China’s securities finance field, and is currently a founding partner of Oriental Huifu.Affected by the sudden outbreak this year, some of the companies invested by Dongfang Huifu have also stopped working. However, Kan Zhidong said that he believes that the outbreak can be restored quickly. “In fact, we have not invested companies because of the outbreak.Facing bankruptcy.Kan Zhidong believes that the impact of the recent epidemic on the national economy is limited, and the focus will gradually hinder the impact in the first quarter, but the overall impact on the internal economy will not be too large, nor will it affect the overall development trend of the domestic economy.Text: Sauna Night Net: How has Oriental Huifu resumed work recently?Kan Zhidong: According to the requirements of the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control, the employees of Dongfang Huifu work at home for two weeks after the Spring Festival, and the 14-day isolation period a week ago and the qualified local or local employees have basically resumed work.We have also taken strict precautions to ensure that everyone has a safe and healthy working environment.We want to work together with everyone to defeat this epidemic.Sauna Nightnet: According to your understanding, has this epidemic and SARS and other epidemic classifications affected the social economy?Zhidong: In my memory, we have experienced several major epidemics during these decades.Meningitis occurred in the 1960s. At that time, although the medical conditions were weak, there was no suspension of business and classes. The government was actively doing prevention and control work, and quickly controlled the epidemic.This was followed by the large-scale hepatitis A epidemic experienced in Shanghai in 1988.The third time was SARS in 2003. That was when I was working in Shenzhen, when Shenzhen was the hardest hit by the epidemic.After the emergence of these epidemics, the Chinese government immediately took effective measures to overcome the epidemic in a short period of time.This is followed by this new coronary pneumonia. Based on past experience, I firmly believe that this time it will be a good victory.But unlike before, the prevention and control measures are the most stringent in history. We are not hesitating to repeat the suspension of work and classes. For example, our Oriental Huifu has also been closed for a month, and more services or film and television industries have not yet resumed work.No school starts in the cloud, and the deadline is unpredictable.So seeing that the national government puts people ‘s lives, health and safety in the first place is really a great price to pay.Sauna Nightnet: Are the companies invested by Orient Huifu currently affected by the epidemic? What are the specific impacts? Can you introduce them?Zhidong: Everyone knows that we are investing in physical enterprises. During the epidemic, the physical enterprises must bear the brunt, and most of them are also closed for business and affected.But overall, we believe that the difficulties are only temporary.As shareholders, if the companies we invest in have difficulties, we will do our best to help them. I believe everyone will recover quickly after the epidemic, and make up for the losses during this period.So far, we have not invested in the company has faced bankruptcy due to the epidemic.Sauna Night Net: Oriental Huifu’s business operations are highly dependent on travel activities and offline communication. Is the company’s investment and financing, and the best adjustment activities affected?How is it happening under the current epidemic?Governing the East: Suffering is certain.Our business development is “funding, investment”.In the process of fundraising, we have to find potential investors to do roadshows. In the process of investment, due diligence and corporate visits are involved. These are mainly offline.Although the epidemic has now been brought under control, under the current situation, the exchanges between the regions are still very cautious, and the communication with the severely affected areas has not been unblocked.However, everything is temporary, and it is still very effective to use telephone conferences and video conferences. Everyone’s enthusiasm for resuming work is high, and things can be done. However, changes in communication methods have little effect on the results of processing things.Sauna Night: According to your judgment, how much impact will the epidemic have on China’s economic growth in the first quarter and long-term?Governance: In this regard, I agree with the country ‘s point of view. The impact of the epidemic on the current economy is limited. The key point is that there will be a link in the first quarter, and there may be some impact in the second quarter.If it is too large, it will not affect the overall general trend of the country ‘s economy.Sauna Night Net: For the time being, the primary market has entered a downward cycle, and PE / VC funding difficulties are prominent. Will the epidemic cause further decline in the primary market?Zhidong: I understand that the primary market you are referring to may be two aspects, one is the issuance market related to the stock market, including the PRE-IPO round of our investment swap, fixed increase, etc., and the other is the traditional we doEquity investment is invested in companies that are listed but are still a few steps away.This impact will certainly be there. For example, companies need to go to the Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission to submit materials, and investment companies have to go to field visits, etc., but this recovery is very fast, so I do n’t think it is a big problem in this regard.However, the difficulty of raising funds is not a problem caused by the epidemic.There are many factors for the difficulty of fundraising, including everyone’s concept of private equity is still very vague, especially in the early stage of the industry, some so-called private equity is doing things that the fund does not do by the fund, so it explodes a lot of mines, likeThe impact of these possibilities has not yet been overcome.In this regard, the government can only rely on positive and positive publicity to strictly distinguish between “illegal fund-raising” and “distance fund-raising”.Investment institutions like ours are doing venture capital. It is well known that there are risks in investment. It is not possible to characterize institutions as illegal fund raising because of some so-called risks. They must be strictly distinguished. I believe that only industry regulations can do it.Well done.Sauna Night: With this industry expectation, what advice do you have for industry practitioners?Zhidong: The entire venture capital industry has not been very prosperous for two or two years, for reasons I mentioned earlier.My colleagues and I believe that the industry’s major reshuffle is not a bad thing. What really sticks to it and stays behind is what really does our business.I once said that when comparing our industry to gold rushing, the Northeast used to go to the Guandong gold rush. The purpose of the gold diggers is to find a piece of dog head gold.Gold must be a gold digger.That is, when we are in difficulty, we still want to do our business and love this business. The main thing is to persevere and not forget the original intention.Sauna Night: For the time being, will the epidemic bring benefits to certain industries?Will there be some investment opportunities?Dongfanghui is rich in unplanned layout?Zhidong: Internet office has been used all the time. We also use video conferences and telephone conferences frequently, but this time because of the epidemic, everyone uses more.I believe that through the promotion of this epidemic, such enterprises can improve their products more quickly and open the market while taking advantage of the situation.Recently, everyone is very concerned about the medical materials related to the epidemic, the health companies of the disease control center, as well as the big data technology companies, such as the companies with the application code type used in Shanghai, and of course the vaccine development and storage companies.The deepest understanding should be the problem of masks, as well as the thermometers that I have recently used every day, and some biopharmaceutical industries, which should receive further attention from everyone in the future.And through this epidemic, I believe that people will be more correct in the complication of the epidemic. Maybe masks, thermometers, disinfection and sterilization products will become household items, and various production companies can pay attention.Of course, our team will continue to pay attention to these industries.Sauna Night Net: Recently, the stock market value has fluctuated, and the market has continued to rise. The voice of the bull market has appeared. What is the reason?Zhidong: I am also paying attention to the recent stock market. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has always been around 3000 points, and the views of the long and short sides on the market are still alternatives.But I also saw several phenomena, one is that our trading volume exceeded one trillion in a few days, hitting a new high since 2015, and the entire P / E ratio of our GEM reached nearly 60, etc., so some people said that the bull marketComing soon, of course, the stock market is definitely a bull and bear, but now the epidemic is grim, companies are suspended from school and classes are closed. It seems that there is no reason to come to a big bull market.Sauna Night Net: What do you think of the future?Will risk outweigh opportunity?Kan Zhidong: Market changes are not shifted by people ‘s wills, and everyone ‘s views on the city are not exactly the same, so if you ask about opportunity greater than risk or risk greater than opportunity, I will say that opportunity and risk will always coexist, of course, some people see itIt ‘s an opportunity. Some people only see risk. That ‘s because everyone ‘s opinions are different. So it ‘s hard to say today that risk is greater than opportunity. I do n’t fully agree with it, because the stock market index is still relatively low, but it is also difficult to trim the bull market.To come.Sauna Night Net: GEM once appeared a new high for many years, what do you think?Zhidong: Some people say that the current P / E ratio of the GEM has reached 60 times, and it will take 60 years to reinvest. I do not recognize this view.Because we say that an industry or sector has a high price-earnings multiple, it shows that everyone is looking forward to its growth. Regardless of the GEM or the Science and Technology Board, most of them are technology-based companies. We think these companies have good futureGrowth, so we have to look at this multiple rationally, not to see that it will take us 60 years to reinvest this scale to understand this data.What do we say is that the earnings multiple is the concept of growth?For example, if the company ‘s price-earnings ratio is 60 times, but the company ‘s growth rate reaches 20%, then the company ‘s price-earnings ratio may drop from 60 times to 48 times in the second year, and then grow every year, the multiple will fall every year, so this is to buyIt’s growth rather than buying its current price-earnings ratio.Sauna Night Net: A lot of analysis believes that the epidemic may lead to a more lenient policy. How do you assess the future monetary policy and the mid- to long-term trend of A shares?Zhidong: As I mentioned earlier, the country has introduced a lot of easing policies to hedge against the epidemic, including the funding side, the income side, etc. The market is encouraged. Everyone has also seen the positive performance of the market, and even the transaction volume has reachedWith trillions or more, it is difficult for me to judge whether a new bull market has started.Monetary policy is supported by the state, and loose monetary policy will still be adopted in future restructuring. This is a problem that has been seen.The A-share has been hovering at a relatively low 3000 points, and the entire stock market is still in a downturn. I definitely hope that it will improve in the future, but I still want to remind everyone to remember that investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.Sauna Night Net: In the new “Securities Law” that has been implemented since March 1, the registration system for corporate bonds and corporate bonds is fully implemented.Will the registration system have some impact on the market?What are the suggestions for organizations and practitioners?Kan Zhidong: Starting from March 1 this year, our corporate bonds and corporate bonds first started the registration system.In fact, since 2015, we have implemented a “quasi-registration system” for corporate bonds and corporate bonds. At that time, the process was pre-examination by the exchange and approval by the CSRC.Then the current process is the exchange listing review and the issuance registration of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.This is the key change.Regarding the registration system, I always say, do n’t think that we are letting go from the audit system to the registration system. This is not the case. It is nothing more than a change in the main audit place.In the trial, I think that there is not much change in essence in the issuance of corporate bonds or corporate bonds.I also noticed that some of the distribution requirements may have changed a bit, but the meaning of the entire implementation has not changed.In fact, the functional functions of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have been strengthened. Although the business functions of the China Securities Regulatory Commission have been weakened, its regulatory actions have been strengthened.The implementation of the registration system, I think it will not have much impact on the market.For institutions and practitioners, it is to learn and adapt to new requirements.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhao Yibo Zhu Yueyi Editor Wang Yu proofreading Chen Diyan